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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 3 at the 32

Houston Texans 17 – Denver Broncos 38

What Actually Happened

(7:15) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle intended for 88-J.Akins INTERCEPTED by 22-K.Jackson (31-J.Simmons) at DEN 21. 22-K.Jackson to DEN 25 for 4 yards (12-K.Stills).

The Three Options

GO +1.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.02 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 32, worth -1.64 EP
KICK +0.68 EP
  • 75% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.59 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 42, worth -2.12 EP
PUNT -0.61 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model