Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 10 at the 41

Houston Texans 0 – Denver Broncos 0

(10:32) 9-B.Anger punts 33 yards to DEN 8, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 11-D.Spencer. Punt Hangtime: 4.34s

The Three Options

GO +0.17 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +4.16 EP
68% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 41, worth -1.71 EP

KICK +0.19 EP

55% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
45% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.50 EP

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model