4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 13

Houston Texans 17 – Denver Broncos 38

What Actually Happened

(1:01) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 10-D.Hopkins to DEN 3 for 10 yards (22-K.Jackson; 25-C.Harris).

The Three Options

GO +2.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.27 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 13, worth -0.16 EP
KICK +2.27 EP
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 23, worth -0.53 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model