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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 15 at the 36

Houston Texans 0 – Denver Broncos 21

What Actually Happened

(8:53) 7-K.Fairbairn 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +0.06 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.61 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 36, worth -1.51 EP
KICK +0.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 46, worth -2.30 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model