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Carolina Panthers

HC Ron Rivera
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ATL Home

Atlanta Falcons

HC Dan Quinn
Sunday 2019-12-08 · 13:00 Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.5 O/U 48.0

Win Probability

CAR
36.8%
ATL
63.2%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ATL defense: +0.102 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • CAR offense: -0.062 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • ATL offense: +0.031 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • Kyle Allen (CAR): -0.026 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • ATL on 3 more days rest than CAR

Predicted Final Score

CAR 21
–
ATL 25
Projected margin: ATL by 4 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

CAR

Greg Little T Out Ankle
Greg Olsen TE Out Concussion
Mario Addison LB Questionable Groin
Garrett McGhin T Questionable Ankle

ATL

James Carpenter G Out Concussion
Ty Sambrailo T Out Hamstring
Matt Bosher P Questionable right Groin
Sharrod Neasman S Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CAR 20
–
ATL 40

Prediction missed by 16 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 02:51 FG ATL (2:51) 7-Y.Koo 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-R.Allen. CAR 0 – ATL 3
  • Q2 14:56 FG CAR (14:56) 4-J.Slye 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy. CAR 3 – ATL 3
  • Q2 05:22 TD ATL (5:22) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 18-C.Ridley for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 3 – ATL 9
  • Q2 01:10 TD CAR (1:10) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass short left to 80-I.Thomas for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 9 – ATL 10
  • Q2 00:02 FG ATL (:02) 7-Y.Koo 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-R.Allen. CAR 10 – ATL 13
  • Q3 11:16 TD ATL (11:16) 24-D.Freeman right guard for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 10 – ATL 19
  • Q3 06:45 TD ATL (6:45) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep left to 17-O.Zaccheaus for 93 yards, TOUCHDOWN [33-T.Boston]. CAR 10 – ATL 26
  • Q3 04:59 FG ATL (4:59) 7-Y.Koo 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-R.Allen. CAR 10 – ATL 30
  • Q4 11:44 FG ATL (11:44) 7-Y.Koo 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-R.Allen. Kick hit the right upright and went through. CAR 10 – ATL 33
  • Q4 07:59 FG CAR (7:59) 4-J.Slye 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy. CAR 13 – ATL 33
  • Q4 05:12 TD ATL (5:12) 23-B.Hill right guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 13 – ATL 39
  • Q4 01:31 TD CAR (1:31) (No Huddle) 7-K.Allen left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 19 – ATL 40

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 11 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 47%

    (11:31) 9-R.Allen punts 43 yards to CAR 1, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by ATL-13-C.Blake. Carolina challenged the kick downed ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 9-R.Allen punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Harris, Touchback. PENALTY on ATL-13-C.Blake, Illegal Touch Kick, 0 yards, enforced at CAR 20. Penalty causes Touchback

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 6 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (9:25) 5-M.Palardy punts 50 yards to ATL 26, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-56-J.Carter.

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 5 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 92%

    (2:51) 7-Y.Koo 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-R.Allen.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 6 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 82%

    (14:56) 4-J.Slye 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 6 at the 47
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 40%

    (11:03) 9-R.Allen punts 37 yards to CAR 10, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 14-G.Dortch.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 19 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (7:31) 5-M.Palardy punts 56 yards to ATL 18, Center-44-J.Jansen. 38-K.Barner to ATL 26 for 8 yards (98-M.Haynes; 43-J.Kunaszyk).

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 3 at the 52
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 28%

    (2:47) 9-R.Allen punts 46 yards to CAR 6, Center-47-J.Harris. 14-G.Dortch to CAR 13 for 7 yards (30-Q.Ollison).

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 5 at the 44
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 47%

    (7:44) 5-M.Palardy punts 35 yards to ATL 9, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds. PENALTY on ATL-38-K.Barner, Illegal Bat, 4 yards, enforced at ATL 9.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 5 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 96%

    (4:59) 7-Y.Koo 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-R.Allen.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 11 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (2:54) 5-M.Palardy punts 44 yards to ATL 25, Center-44-J.Jansen. 38-K.Barner to ATL 30 for 5 yards (18-D.White).

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 10 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (1:56) 9-R.Allen punts 50 yards to CAR 20, Center-47-J.Harris. 14-G.Dortch to CAR 30 for 10 yards (54-F.Oluokun; 30-Q.Ollison).

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 7 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 75%

    (11:44) 7-Y.Koo 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-R.Allen. Kick hit the right upright and went through.