Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 11 at the 69

Carolina Panthers 10 – Atlanta Falcons 30

(2:54) 5-M.Palardy punts 44 yards to ATL 25, Center-44-J.Jansen. 38-K.Barner to ATL 30 for 5 yards (18-D.White).

The Three Options

GO -1.81 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.19 EP
67% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 69, worth -3.80 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model