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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 19 at the 74

Carolina Panthers 3 – Atlanta Falcons 3

What Actually Happened

(7:31) 5-M.Palardy punts 56 yards to ATL 18, Center-44-J.Jansen. 38-K.Barner to ATL 26 for 8 yards (98-M.Haynes; 43-J.Kunaszyk).

The Three Options

GO -2.73 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.16 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 74, worth -4.45 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 32, worth -1.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model