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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 5 at the 11

Atlanta Falcons 27 – Carolina Panthers 10

What Actually Happened

(4:59) 7-Y.Koo 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +2.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.61 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP
KICK +2.05 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.67 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model