Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 11 at the 44

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(11:31) 9-R.Allen punts 43 yards to CAR 1, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by ATL-13-C.Blake. Carolina challenged the kick downed ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 9-R.Allen punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Harris, Touchback. PENALTY on ATL-13-C.Blake, Illegal Touch Kick, 0 yards, enforced at CAR 20. Penalty causes Touchback

The Three Options

GO -0.11 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +4.10 EP
69% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.02 EP

KICK -0.21 EP

47% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.40 EP
53% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model