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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 5 at the 44

Carolina Panthers 10 – Atlanta Falcons 20

What Actually Happened

(7:44) 5-M.Palardy punts 35 yards to ATL 9, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds. PENALTY on ATL-38-K.Barner, Illegal Bat, 4 yards, enforced at ATL 9.

The Three Options

GO +0.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.40 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 44, worth -2.39 EP
KICK -0.64 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 12, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP