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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 3 at the 52

Atlanta Falcons 10 – Carolina Panthers 3

What Actually Happened

(2:47) 9-R.Allen punts 46 yards to CAR 6, Center-47-J.Harris. 14-G.Dortch to CAR 13 for 7 yards (30-Q.Ollison).

The Three Options

GO +0.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.62 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 52, worth -2.51 EP
KICK -1.17 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.42 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP