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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

4-7 HC Bruce Arians
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Atlanta Falcons

3-8 HC Dan Quinn
Sunday 2019-11-24 · 13:00 ET Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.5 O/U 51.5

Win Probability

TB
38.3%
ATL
61.7%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • ATL offense: +0.089 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • ATL defense: +0.114 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • Matt Ryan (ATL): +0.112 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • TB defense: +0.073 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

TB 24 17–31
–
ATL 25 18–32
Projected margin: ATL by 1 Projected total: 49

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 12

TB

Anthony Nelson LB Out Hamstring
M.J. Stewart CB Out Knee
Carl Nassib LB Questionable Groin

ATL

Devonta Freeman RB Out Foot
Austin Hooper TE Out Knee
Kemal Ishmael S Out Concussion
Kendall Sheffield CB Questionable Illness
John Cominsky DE Questionable Ankle
Takkarist McKinley DE Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TB 35
–
ATL 22

Prediction missed by 14 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:52 FG ATL (12:52) 7-Y.Koo 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-R.Allen. TB 0 – ATL 3
  • Q1 06:57 TD TB (6:57) 3-J.Winston pass deep middle to 12-C.Godwin for 71 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 6 – ATL 3
  • Q1 00:50 TD ATL (:50) 30-Q.Ollison right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TB 7 – ATL 9
  • Q2 08:01 TD TB (8:01) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short right to 12-C.Godwin for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TB 13 – ATL 10
  • Q2 00:44 TD TB (:44) 50-V.Vea reported in as eligible. 3-J.Winston pass short right to 50-V.Vea for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TB 19 – ATL 10
  • Q3 11:03 TD TB (11:03) 71-E.Watford reported in as eligible. 27-R.Jones left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 25 – ATL 10
  • Q3 01:45 FG ATL (1:45) 7-Y.Koo 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-R.Allen. TB 25 – ATL 13
  • Q4 12:53 FG TB (12:53) 9-M.Gay 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion. TB 28 – ATL 13
  • Q4 08:16 FG ATL (8:16) 7-Y.Koo 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-R.Allen. TB 28 – ATL 16
  • Q4 03:18 TD TB (3:18) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan sacked at ATL 4 for -11 yards (90-J.Pierre-Paul). FUMBLES (90-J.Pierre-Paul) [90-J.Pierre-Paul], RECOVERED by TB-93-N.Suh at ATL 6. 93-N.Suh for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 34 – ATL 16
  • Q4 01:56 TD ATL (1:56) (Shotgun) 8-M.Schaub pass deep left to 18-C.Ridley for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 35 – ATL 22

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 98%

    (12:52) 7-Y.Koo 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-R.Allen.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 ATL 4th & 8 at the 40
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 57%

    (9:31) 9-R.Allen punts 37 yards to TB 3, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 ATL 4th & 17 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 47%

    (4:08) 9-R.Allen punts 34 yards to TB 10, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 TB 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (14:16) 8-B.Pinion punts 54 yards to ATL 13, Center-97-Z.Triner. 38-K.Barner to ATL 13 for no gain (29-R.Smith).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 ATL 4th & 18 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (4:57) 9-R.Allen punts 54 yards to TB 8, Center-47-J.Harris. 22-T.Logan ran ob at TB 35 for 27 yards (30-Q.Ollison). PENALTY on TB-29-R.Smith, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 5 yards, enforced at TB 10. Penalty on TB-17-J.Watson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 ATL 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57%

    (:20) 9-R.Allen punts 42 yards to TB 26, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by ATL-41-S.Neasman.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 TB 4th & 2 at the 81
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP
    p(convert) 64%

    (7:48) 8-B.Pinion punts 43 yards to ATL 38, Center-97-Z.Triner. 38-K.Barner to ATL 44 for 6 yards (79-P.O'Connor).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 ATL 4th & 14 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 90%

    (1:45) 7-Y.Koo 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-R.Allen.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 TB 4th & 4 at the 14
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 95%

    (12:53) 9-M.Gay 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 ATL 4th & 4 at the 50
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 32%

    (11:00) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 83-R.Gage to TB 45 for 5 yards (26-S.Bunting).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 ATL 4th & 16 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 91%

    (8:16) 7-Y.Koo 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-R.Allen.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 TB 4th & 10 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (6:46) 8-B.Pinion punts 45 yards to ATL 17, Center-97-Z.Triner. 38-K.Barner to ATL 19 for 2 yards (29-R.Smith).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 ATL 4th & 14 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (5:59) 9-R.Allen punts 40 yards to TB 45, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by ATL-80-L.Stocker.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 TB 4th & 10 at the 43 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 50%

    (3:53) 8-B.Pinion punts 33 yards to ATL 10, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 38-K.Barner.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 ATL 4th & 5 at the 85 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 50%

    (3:18) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan sacked at ATL 4 for -11 yards (90-J.Pierre-Paul). FUMBLES (90-J.Pierre-Paul) [90-J.Pierre-Paul], RECOVERED by TB-93-N.Suh at ATL 6. 93-N.Suh for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 ATL 4th & 7 at the 21 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.95 EP
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 90%

    (1:56) (Shotgun) 8-M.Schaub pass deep left to 18-C.Ridley for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    See the full breakdown →