Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 5 at the 85

Atlanta Falcons 16 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28

What Actually Happened

(3:18) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan sacked at ATL 4 for -11 yards (90-J.Pierre-Paul). FUMBLES (90-J.Pierre-Paul) [90-J.Pierre-Paul], RECOVERED by TB-93-N.Suh at ATL 6. 93-N.Suh for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -1.03 EP

What Happened

50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +1.37 EP
50% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 85, worth -3.47 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.38 EP