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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 7 at the 21

Atlanta Falcons 16 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 35

What Actually Happened

(1:56) (Shotgun) 8-M.Schaub pass deep left to 18-C.Ridley for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +1.43 EP
What Happened
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.41 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.29 EP
KICK +2.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.68 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 31, worth -0.40 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.95 EP