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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 14 at the 22

Atlanta Falcons 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 25

What Actually Happened

(1:45) 7-Y.Koo 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +1.20 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.37 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.32 EP
KICK +2.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.48 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.01 EP
PUNT +0.49 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model