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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 2 at the 67

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(14:16) 8-B.Pinion punts 54 yards to ATL 13, Center-97-Z.Triner. 38-K.Barner to ATL 13 for no gain (29-R.Smith).

The Three Options

GO -0.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.38 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 67, worth -3.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.27 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 25, worth -1.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP