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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 10 at the 43

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28 – Atlanta Falcons 16

What Actually Happened

(3:53) 8-B.Pinion punts 33 yards to ATL 10, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 38-K.Barner.

The Three Options

GO -0.65 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +1.99 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 43, worth -1.96 EP
KICK -0.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.44 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.30 EP
PUNT -0.81 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 12, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.36 EP