Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 3 at the 68

Atlanta Falcons 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19

(:20) 9-R.Allen punts 42 yards to TB 26, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by ATL-41-S.Neasman.

The Three Options

GO -0.56 EP

57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.57 EP
43% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 68, worth -2.06 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model