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JAX Away

Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Doug Marrone
@
IND Home

Indianapolis Colts

HC Frank Reich
Sunday 2019-11-17 · 13:00 Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread 2.5 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

JAX
44.8%
IND
55.2%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • JAX offense: -0.078 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • JAX on 7 more days rest than IND
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • Nick Foles (JAX): +0.110 EPA/dropback in prior starts (JAX starting Nick Foles in place of Gardner Minshew)
  • IND defense: -0.020 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (13th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

JAX 21
–
IND 23
Projected margin: IND by 2 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

JAX

Seth DeValve TE Doubtful Oblique

IND

Parris Campbell WR Out Hand
T.Y. Hilton WR Out Calf
Pierre Desir CB Doubtful Hamstring
Mo Alie-Cox TE Questionable Hip
Jordan Wilkins RB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

JAX 13
–
IND 33

Prediction missed by 18 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:02 TD JAX (7:02) (Shotgun) 7-N.Foles pass short middle to 17-D.Chark Jr. for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 6 – IND 0
  • Q1 00:45 TD IND (:45) 25-M.Mack up the middle for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 7 – IND 6
  • Q2 08:30 FG IND (8:30) 4-A.Vinatieri 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. JAX 7 – IND 10
  • Q3 08:54 TD IND (8:54) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 83-M.Johnson for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 7 – IND 16
  • Q3 01:04 TD IND (1:04) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett scrambles right end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 7 – IND 23
  • Q4 12:46 TD IND (12:46) (Shotgun) 21-N.Hines up the middle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 7 – IND 30
  • Q4 01:05 TD JAX (1:05) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-N.Foles pass deep right to 17-D.Chark Jr. for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 13 – IND 31

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 10 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (11:39) (Punt formation) 9-L.Cooke punts 50 yards to IND 7, Center-46-M.Orzech, downed by JAX-55-L.McCray.

  • Q1 IND 4th & 10 at the 93
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (10:06) (Punt formation) 8-R.Sanchez punts 43 yards to 50, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 12-D.Westbrook to 50 for no gain (50-A.Walker, 44-Z.Franklin). PENALTY on JAX-42-A.Wingard, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at 50.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 17 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (12:47) (Punt formation) 9-L.Cooke punts 48 yards to IND 22, Center-46-M.Orzech. 80-C.Rogers ran ob at IND 30 for 8 yards (26-J.Wilson).

  • Q2 IND 4th & 2 at the 16
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 94%

    (8:30) 4-A.Vinatieri 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.04 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (6:19) (Punt formation) 9-L.Cooke punts 47 yards to IND 19, Center-46-M.Orzech. 80-C.Rogers to IND 20 for 1 yard (40-B.Watson).

  • Q2 IND 4th & 6 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (4:01) (Punt formation) 8-R.Sanchez punts 42 yards to JAX 34, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 7 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (3:14) (Punt formation) 9-L.Cooke punts 48 yards to IND 15, Center-46-M.Orzech, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 12 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (1:04) (Punt formation) 8-R.Sanchez punts 44 yards to JAX 33, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 12-D.Westbrook. PENALTY on JAX-54-D.Payne, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at JAX 33.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 4 at the 39
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.54 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 60%

    (:21) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short left to 80-C.Rogers [41-J.Allen].

  • Q3 IND 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 99%

    (8:54) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 83-M.Johnson for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 4 at the 44
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 47%

    (3:58) (Shotgun) 7-N.Foles pass incomplete short left to 17-D.Chark Jr. (23-K.Moore II).

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (:18) (Punt formation) 9-L.Cooke punts 40 yards to IND 30, Center-46-M.Orzech. 58-B.Okereke MUFFS catch, touched at IND 30, RECOVERED by JAX-54-D.Payne at IND 29. 54-D.Payne to IND 29 for no gain (30-G.Odum).

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 9 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 82%

    (14:57) 4-J.Lambo 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 7 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (9:15) (Punt formation) 9-L.Cooke punts 47 yards to IND 12, Center-46-M.Orzech, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.