4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 44

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Indianapolis Colts 17

What Actually Happened

(3:58) (Shotgun) 7-N.Foles pass incomplete short left to 17-D.Chark Jr. (23-K.Moore II).

The Three Options

GO +0.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.37 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 44, worth -2.11 EP
KICK -0.45 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.65 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 12, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model