Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 7 at the 59

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Indianapolis Colts 31

(9:15) (Punt formation) 9-L.Cooke punts 47 yards to IND 12, Center-46-M.Orzech, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

The Three Options

GO -0.66 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.95 EP
62% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 59, worth -2.82 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model