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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 2 at the 16

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(8:30) 4-A.Vinatieri 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +2.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.13 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 16, worth -0.73 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26, worth -1.18 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP