Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 10 at the 93

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(10:06) (Punt formation) 8-R.Sanchez punts 43 yards to 50, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 12-D.Westbrook to 50 for no gain (50-A.Walker, 44-Z.Franklin). PENALTY on JAX-42-A.Wingard, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at 50.

The Three Options

GO -3.03 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.97 EP
63% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 93, worth -5.38 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (110 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model