Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 12 at the 77

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(1:04) (Punt formation) 8-R.Sanchez punts 44 yards to JAX 33, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 12-D.Westbrook. PENALTY on JAX-54-D.Payne, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at JAX 33.

The Three Options

GO -2.33 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.34 EP
68% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 77, worth -4.08 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model