4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 66

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Indianapolis Colts 10

What Actually Happened

(6:19) (Punt formation) 9-L.Cooke punts 47 yards to IND 19, Center-46-M.Orzech. 80-C.Rogers to IND 20 for 1 yard (40-B.Watson).

The Three Options

GO -0.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.51 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 66, worth -3.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.12 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 24, worth -1.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.04 EP