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DAL Away

Dallas Cowboys

HC Jason Garrett
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Detroit Lions

HC Matt Patricia
Sunday 2019-11-17 · 13:00 Ford Field, Detroit US 🏟 Dome Spread -7.5 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

DAL
68.3%
DET
31.7%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to DAL: Jeff Driskel (DET) -0.132 vs Dak Prescott (DAL) +0.291 EPA/dropback
  • DAL offense: +0.124 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • DET defense: +0.131 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • DET offense: +0.045 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

DAL 28
–
DET 22
Projected margin: DAL by 6 Projected total: 50

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

DAL

Connor Williams G Out Knee
La'el Collins T Questionable Knee
Jeff Heath S Questionable Shoulder

DET

Da'Shawn Hand DE Out Ankle
Matthew Stafford QB Out Hip
Rick Wagner T Out Concussion
Nick Bawden RB Questionable Foot
Damon Harrison DT Questionable Groin
Sam Martin P Questionable Abdomen
Romeo Okwara DE Questionable Groin
Tracy Walker S Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DAL 35
–
DET 27

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:38 TD DET (12:38) (Shotgun) 43-B.Scarbrough up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on DAL-96-M.Collins, Defensive Offside, declined. DAL 0 – DET 6
  • Q1 02:22 FG DAL (2:22) 2-B.Maher 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. DAL 3 – DET 7
  • Q2 14:19 TD DAL (14:19) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 20-T.Pollard for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 9 – DET 7
  • Q2 07:49 TD DET (7:49) (Shotgun) 2-J.Driskel up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 10 – DET 13
  • Q2 04:42 TD DAL (4:42) 75-C.Fleming reported in as eligible. 21-E.Elliott up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 16 – DET 14
  • Q2 00:33 TD DAL (:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle to 18-R.Cobb for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on DET-25-W.Harris, Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact, 15 yards, enforced between downs. DAL 23 – DET 14
  • Q3 09:22 TD DET (9:22) (Shotgun) 2-J.Driskel pass short right to 11-M.Jones for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 24 – DET 20
  • Q3 05:05 FG DAL (5:05) 2-B.Maher 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. DAL 27 – DET 21
  • Q4 08:03 TD DAL (8:03) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 21-E.Elliott for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 33 – DET 21
  • Q4 05:58 TD DET (5:58) (Shotgun) 2-J.Driskel pass deep middle to 11-M.Jones for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 35 – DET 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 9 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (11:37) 6-C.Jones punts 48 yards to DET 37, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 39-J.Agnew to DET 47 for 10 yards (23-D.Thompson). PENALTY on DET-49-C.Moore, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at DET 40.

  • Q1 DET 4th & 4 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (10:01) 6-S.Martin punts 52 yards to DAL 12, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 10-T.Austin to DAL 14 for 2 yards (30-D.Virgin).

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 12 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 96%

    (2:22) 2-B.Maher 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q1 DET 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (1:28) 6-S.Martin punts 41 yards to DAL 30, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 10-T.Austin.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 15 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (12:43) 6-S.Martin punts 57 yards to DAL 23, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 10-T.Austin to DAL 17 for -6 yards (35-M.Killebrew). PENALTY on DAL-26-J.Jones, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 25.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 9 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (11:17) 6-C.Jones punts 50 yards to DET 23, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 39-J.Agnew pushed ob at DAL 45 for 32 yards (89-B.Jarwin).

  • Q2 DET 4th & 9 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (1:56) 6-S.Martin punts 52 yards to DAL 17, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 10-T.Austin.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 10 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 94%

    (5:05) 2-B.Maher 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 10 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 50%

    (13:45) 6-S.Martin punts 27 yards to DAL 16, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 18-R.Cobb.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 9 at the 40 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.86 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 57%

    (3:52) 6-C.Jones punts 26 yards to DET 14, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 17-M.Hall.