Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 9 at the 85

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Detroit Lions 7

What Actually Happened

(11:37) 6-C.Jones punts 48 yards to DET 37, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 39-J.Agnew to DET 47 for 10 yards (23-D.Thompson). PENALTY on DET-49-C.Moore, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at DET 40.

The Three Options

GO -2.85 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.47 EP
58% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 85, worth -5.25 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model