Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 6 at the 71

Detroit Lions 7 – Dallas Cowboys 3

(1:28) 6-S.Martin punts 41 yards to DAL 30, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 10-T.Austin.

The Three Options

GO -1.17 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.14 EP
56% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 71, worth -3.74 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model