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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 10 at the 16

Dallas Cowboys 24 – Detroit Lions 21

What Actually Happened

(5:05) 2-B.Maher 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.22 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.58 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 16, worth -0.82 EP
KICK +1.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26, worth -1.22 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model