Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 9 at the 69

Detroit Lions 14 – Dallas Cowboys 17

(1:56) 6-S.Martin punts 52 yards to DAL 17, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 10-T.Austin.

The Three Options

GO -1.46 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.06 EP
63% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 69, worth -3.51 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model