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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 9 at the 73

Dallas Cowboys 10 – Detroit Lions 7

What Actually Happened

(11:17) 6-C.Jones punts 50 yards to DET 23, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 39-J.Agnew pushed ob at DAL 45 for 32 yards (89-B.Jarwin).

The Three Options

GO -2.02 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.45 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 73, worth -4.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 31, worth -1.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model