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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 12 at the 12

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Detroit Lions 7

What Actually Happened

(2:22) 2-B.Maher 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.02 EP
  • 29% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.37 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 12, worth -0.74 EP
KICK +1.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.43 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 22, worth -1.37 EP
PUNT -0.60 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model