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NYJ Away

New York Jets

HC Adam Gase
@
MIA Home

Miami Dolphins

HC Brian Flores
Sunday 2019-11-03 · 13:00 Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens US 🌧 Rain Spread -3.5 O/U 42.5

Win Probability

NYJ
34.5%
MIA
65.5%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYJ offense: -0.383 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • MIA offense: -0.282 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • MIA defense: +0.202 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • Sam Darnold (NYJ): -0.104 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

NYJ 20
–
MIA 23
Projected margin: MIA by 3 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

NYJ

Josh Bellamy WR Out Foot
Trumaine Johnson CB Out Ankles
Ryan Kalil C Out Knee
Rontez Miles S Out Neck
C.J. Mosley LB Out Groin
Neville Hewitt LB Doubtful Neck
Kelvin Beachum T Questionable Ankle
Braxton Berrios WR Questionable Hamstring
Christopher Herndon TE Questionable Hamstring
Steve McLendon DT Questionable Hamstring
Demaryius Thomas WR Questionable Hamstring

MIA

Ken Webster CB Out Ankle
Reshad Jones S Doubtful Chest
Daniel Kilgore C Doubtful Knee
Ryan Lewis CB Questionable Knee
Walt Aikens S Questionable Hip
Avery Moss DE Questionable Ankle
J'Marcus Webb T Questionable Quadricep

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYJ 18
–
MIA 26

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:42 TD NYJ (9:42) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 82-J.Crowder for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN [94-C.Wilkins]. PENALTY on MIA-94-C.Wilkins, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced between downs. NYJ 6 – MIA 0
  • Q2 14:52 TD MIA (14:52) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short middle to 18-P.Williams for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 7 – MIA 6
  • Q2 06:19 TD MIA (6:19) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep right to 11-D.Parker for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 7 – MIA 13
  • Q2 01:54 TD MIA (1:54) 64-C.Reed reported in as eligible. 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short left to 18-P.Williams for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 7 – MIA 20
  • Q2 00:48 SAF NYJ (:48) 14-R.Fitzpatrick up the middle to MIA 1 for no gain (58-J.Burgess). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 14-R.Fitzpatrick up the middle tackled in End Zone for -1 yards, SAFETY (58-J.Burgess). NYJ 9 – MIA 21
  • Q2 00:06 FG NYJ (:06) 9-S.Ficken 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards. NYJ 12 – MIA 21
  • Q3 06:52 FG NYJ (6:52) (Field Goal formation) 9-S.Ficken 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards. NYJ 15 – MIA 21
  • Q3 01:05 FG MIA (1:05) 7-J.Sanders 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-2-M.Haack. NYJ 15 – MIA 24
  • Q4 06:33 SAF MIA (6:33) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold Aborted. 78-J.Harrison FUMBLES at NYJ -2, ball out of bounds in End Zone, SAFETY. NYJ 15 – MIA 26
  • Q4 00:19 FG NYJ (:19) (Field Goal formation) 9-S.Ficken 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards. NYJ 18 – MIA 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 32
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 70%

    (11:33) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 18-D.Thomas pushed ob at MIA 17 for 15 yards (21-E.Rowe; 40-N.Needham).

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 12 at the 94
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (8:05) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 57 yards to NYJ 37, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios. NYJ-88-T.Montgomery was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. Penalty on NYJ-88-T.Montgomery, Running Into the Kicker, declined.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 12 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 72%

    (2:10) (Field Goal formation) 9-S.Ficken 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 17 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22%

    (11:38) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 43 yards to MIA 16, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (4:46) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 40 yards to MIA 35, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 18-P.Williams pushed ob at MIA 44 for 9 yards (87-D.Brown).

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 15 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 72%

    (11:48) (Field Goal formation) 7-J.Sanders 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-2-M.Haack.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 87%

    (6:52) (Field Goal formation) 9-S.Ficken 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 8 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 97%

    (1:05) 7-J.Sanders 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-2-M.Haack.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (:16) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 45 yards to MIA 24, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-23-A.Maulet. PENALTY on NYJ-23-A.Maulet, Kick Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at MIA 24.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 8 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (9:35) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 48 yards to MIA 35, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 18-P.Williams to MIA 45 for 10 yards (51-B.Copeland).

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 8 at the 39
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 51%

    (6:42) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 32 yards to NYJ 7, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by MIA-30-C.Lammons.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 11 at the 43 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.31 EP
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 40%

    (2:55) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 35 yards to NYJ 8, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 83 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69%

    (1:55) 26-L.Bell right guard to NYJ 25 for 8 yards (40-N.Needham; 33-J.Wiltz).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 11 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 96%

    (:19) (Field Goal formation) 9-S.Ficken 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.