Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 17 at the 59

New York Jets 7 – Miami Dolphins 7

(11:38) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 43 yards to MIA 16, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.10 EP

22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.97 EP
78% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 59, worth -3.58 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model