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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 12 at the 31

New York Jets 7 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(2:10) (Field Goal formation) 9-S.Ficken 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO -0.35 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.51 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 31, worth -1.90 EP
KICK +0.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.44 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 41, worth -2.48 EP
PUNT -0.60 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model