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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 4 at the 22

New York Jets 12 – Miami Dolphins 21

What Actually Happened

(6:52) (Field Goal formation) 9-S.Ficken 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO +1.29 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.79 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 22, worth -0.94 EP
KICK +1.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 32, worth -1.63 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model