4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 2 at the 32

New York Jets 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(11:33) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 18-D.Thomas pushed ob at MIA 17 for 15 yards (21-E.Rowe; 40-N.Needham).

The Three Options

GO +1.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.84 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 32, worth -1.88 EP
KICK +0.30 EP
  • 70% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 42, worth -2.61 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model