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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 8 at the 83

New York Jets 15 – Miami Dolphins 24

What Actually Happened

(9:35) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 48 yards to MIA 35, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 18-P.Williams to MIA 45 for 10 yards (51-B.Copeland).

The Three Options

GO -2.52 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.62 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 83, worth -4.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -1.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 41, worth -1.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model