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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 15 at the 31

Miami Dolphins 21 – New York Jets 12

What Actually Happened

(11:48) (Field Goal formation) 7-J.Sanders 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-2-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +0.03 EP
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.98 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 31, worth -1.31 EP
KICK +0.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 41, worth -2.03 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model