Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- KC offense: +0.170 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
- GB offense: +0.059 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
- Aaron Rodgers (GB): +0.141 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- KC on 3 more days rest than GB
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 8
GB
KC
Pulled fresh for 2019 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 08:49 TD GB (8:49) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 33-A.Jones for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 6 – KC 0
- Q1 02:14 TD GB (2:14) (Shotgun) 30-J.Williams up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. GB 13 – KC 0
- Q2 11:04 TD KC (11:04) (Shotgun) 8-M.Moore pass deep right to 87-T.Kelce for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN [52-R.Gary]. GB 14 – KC 6
- Q2 06:21 TD KC (6:21) (Shotgun) 8-M.Moore pass short middle to 17-M.Hardman for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 14 – KC 13
- Q2 01:00 FG KC (1:00) 7-H.Butker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. GB 14 – KC 17
- Q3 01:35 FG GB (1:35) 2-M.Crosby 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott. GB 17 – KC 17
- Q4 14:05 TD GB (14:05) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 30-J.Williams for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN [90-E.Ogbah]. GB 23 – KC 17
- Q4 09:03 TD KC (9:03) (Shotgun) 26-Dam.Williams left tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 24 – KC 23
- Q4 08:14 TD GB (8:14) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 33-A.Jones for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 30 – KC 24
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 KC 4th & 1 at the 66Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.94 EPp(convert) 74%
(7:16) 2-D.Colquitt punts 48 yards to GB 18, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 10-D.Shepherd.
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Q1 KC 4th & 12 at the 32Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 73%
(4:16) 7-H.Butker 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
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Q2 GB 4th & 17 at the 63Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27%
(8:12) 6-J.Scott punts 25 yards to KC 38, Center-43-H.Bradley, out of bounds.
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Q2 GB 4th & 3 at the 54Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 54%
(4:06) 6-J.Scott punts 38 yards to KC 16, Center-43-H.Bradley, out of bounds.
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Q2 KC 4th & 5 at the 10Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42% p(FG) 96%
(1:00) 7-H.Butker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
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Q3 KC 4th & 19 at the 59Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27%
(10:12) 2-D.Colquitt punts 48 yards to GB 11, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 10-D.Shepherd.
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Q3 GB 4th & 17 at the 17Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 23% p(FG) 93%
(1:35) 2-M.Crosby 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.
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Q4 KC 4th & 3 at the 60Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 57%
(5:13) 2-D.Colquitt punts 58 yards to GB 2, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-27-R.Fenton.