Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 19 at the 59

Kansas City Chiefs 17 – Green Bay Packers 14

(10:12) 2-D.Colquitt punts 48 yards to GB 11, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 10-D.Shepherd.

The Three Options

GO -1.33 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.42 EP
73% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 59, worth -3.10 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model