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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 12 at the 32

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(4:16) 7-H.Butker 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +0.48 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.69 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.39 EP
KICK +0.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 42, worth -2.09 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model