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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 17 at the 17

Green Bay Packers 14 – Kansas City Chiefs 17

What Actually Happened

(1:35) 2-M.Crosby 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +0.51 EP
  • 23% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.56 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 17, worth -0.99 EP
KICK +1.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 27, worth -1.40 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model