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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 3 at the 60

Kansas City Chiefs 24 – Green Bay Packers 31

What Actually Happened

(5:13) 2-D.Colquitt punts 58 yards to GB 2, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-27-R.Fenton.

The Three Options

GO -0.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.78 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 60, worth -2.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.39 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 19, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model