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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 66

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(7:16) 2-D.Colquitt punts 48 yards to GB 18, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 10-D.Shepherd.

The Three Options

GO +0.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.73 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 24, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.94 EP