Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 17 at the 63

Green Bay Packers 14 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

(8:12) 6-J.Scott punts 25 yards to KC 38, Center-43-H.Bradley, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.89 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.78 EP
73% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 63, worth -3.66 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model