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Arizona Cardinals

HC Kliff Kingsbury
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New Orleans Saints

HC Sean Payton
Sunday 2019-10-27 · 13:00 Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans US 🏟 Dome Spread 12.5 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

ARI
31.4%
NO
68.6%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Drew Brees (NO): +0.249 EPA/dropback in prior starts (NO starting Drew Brees in place of Teddy Bridgewater)
  • NO offense: +0.054 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • ARI defense: +0.089 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

ARI 22
–
NO 28
Projected margin: NO by 6 Projected total: 50

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

ARI

Zach Allen DE Out Neck
D.J. Foster RB Out Hamstring
David Johnson RB Questionable Ankle
Dennis Gardeck LB Questionable Ankle
Jordan Hicks LB Questionable Calf
Christian Kirk WR Questionable Ankle
Haason Reddick LB Questionable Knee
Ezekiel Turner LB Questionable Hamstring

NO

Jared Cook TE Out Ankle
Patrick Robinson CB Out Hamstring
Tre'Quan Smith WR Out Ankle
Drew Brees QB Questionable right Thumb
J.T. Gray S Questionable Ankle
Alvin Kamara RB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ARI 9
–
NO 31

Prediction missed by 16 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:46 FG ARI (5:46) 5-Z.Gonzalez 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee. ARI 3 – NO 0
  • Q2 14:17 FG NO (14:17) 3-W.Lutz 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. ARI 3 – NO 3
  • Q2 09:03 TD NO (9:03) 28-L.Murray right guard for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 3 – NO 9
  • Q2 05:23 FG ARI (5:23) 5-Z.Gonzalez 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee. ARI 6 – NO 10
  • Q3 05:33 TD NO (5:33) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 28-L.Murray for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 3, YAC 12 ARI 6 – NO 16
  • Q3 01:47 FG ARI (1:47) 5-Z.Gonzalez 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee. ARI 9 – NO 17
  • Q4 12:52 TD NO (12:52) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 7-T.Hill for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 5, YAC 0 ARI 9 – NO 23
  • Q4 05:23 TD NO (5:23) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 13-M.Thomas for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 5, YAC 4 ARI 9 – NO 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NO 4th & 4 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 81%

    (9:00) 3-W.Lutz 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. INJURY UPDATE: ARI #54 Marsh, concussion protocol.

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 9 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 96%

    (5:46) 5-Z.Gonzalez 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 4 at the 7
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 98%

    (14:17) 3-W.Lutz 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (13:04) 4-A.Lee punts 39 yards to NO 29, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 11-D.Harris. INJURY UPDATE: ARI #54 Marsh, CONCUSSION, OUT.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 5 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 96%

    (5:23) 5-Z.Gonzalez 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 7 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (2:56) 6-T.Morstead punts 38 yards to ARI 21, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 12-P.Cooper.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 3 at the 72
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 55%

    (2:00) 4-A.Lee punts 57 yards to NO 15, Center-46-A.Brewer. 11-D.Harris to NO 20 for 5 yards (16-T.Sherfield).

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 11 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (13:05) 4-A.Lee punts 55 yards to NO 9, Center-46-A.Brewer. 11-D.Harris to NO 17 for 8 yards (87-M.Williams).

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 1 at the 70
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (7:36) 29-C.Edmonds left guard to ARI 30 for no gain (93-D.Onyemata).

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 4 at the 32
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 75%

    (1:47) 5-Z.Gonzalez 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (11:25) 4-A.Lee punts 45 yards to NO 29, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 11-D.Harris.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 2 at the 63
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (9:14) 6-T.Morstead punts 50 yards to ARI 13, Center-49-Z.Wood. 12-P.Cooper ran ob at ARI 21 for 8 yards (48-J.Gray).

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 2 at the 27
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 84%

    (6:45) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short right to 11-L.Fitzgerald.