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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 4 at the 29

New Orleans Saints 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(9:00) 3-W.Lutz 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. INJURY UPDATE: ARI #54 Marsh, concussion protocol.

The Three Options

GO +1.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.59 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 29, worth -0.90 EP
KICK +1.62 EP
What Happened
  • 81% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 39, worth -1.68 EP
PUNT +0.31 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model