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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 4 at the 7

New Orleans Saints 0 – Arizona Cardinals 3

What Actually Happened

(14:17) 3-W.Lutz 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +2.82 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.21 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 7, worth +0.19 EP
KICK +2.02 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.66 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP