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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 9 at the 13

Arizona Cardinals 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(5:46) 5-Z.Gonzalez 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +1.60 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.78 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 13, worth -0.16 EP
KICK +1.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 23, worth -0.90 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model